For Black Friday, PayU’s predictions confirm that the event is reaching maturity levels on key emerging markets across the globe. PayU estimates positive increases in high-growth countries, which once again confirms high interest in one of the most important shopping events of the year.
PayU forecasts a 15% growth in the number of online transactions in Romania, a country which has developed Black Friday traditions of its own by holding its designated event almost 2 weeks earlier than most other countries.
Products and services worth approximately RON 510 million will be purchased and paid online, slightly above 2021 levels. Notably, one-click payment will account for approximately 67% of all paid transactions on Black Friday 2022, up with 8% year-on-year, and the average value of installment purchases is expected to double from an ordinary day.
Maintaining the upward trend of online transactions is due to the confidence of consumers to purchase on Black Friday not only from IT&C or fashion products, but also from other categories, such as coffee, perfumes & cosmetics, toys, medical services or tourist packages.
In the past 4 years, PayU witnessed a 16% CAGR growth in total payment volumes during Black Friday. As economic pressures persist, consumers will be spending wisely as the possibility of a recession looms. This trend will be reflected in a slight drop in the average e-commerce basket value estimated for this year, as compared to R1,423 average basket size in 2021, and R1,522 in 2020. However, “following the trend from 2020-2021, we expect about a 10% growth despite the current climate – and this is a conservative estimate”, as stated by Karen Nadasen, PayU South Africa CEO.
Groceries and basic consumable goods are expected to be on consumers’ radar and among top performing verticals. As for luxury goods, we expect an increase between 8% and 10% year-over-year.
Last year, the positive dynamics within local e-commerce landscape were driven by over USD 537 million in sales registered in November 2021 only and a USD 63 average basket size on Black Friday. Additionally, transactional levels have been on an upward since last year, increasing between 1.5% and 2% month over month. All these translate into positive expectations for November this year for the local market. Thus, we expect a 25.2% growth in online sales year-over-year, with a similar percentage increase (23.3%) in the number of transactions during the same interval.
As the last quarter of the year usually presents an increase in sales and transaction volume, similar growth estimates are expected for Cyber Monday, as well. However, it is important to consider key factors such as inflationary pressure and an increasingly higher dollar ($4.99), which will have a direct impact on prices for products in key relevant verticals such as technology, shoes and apparel, hotel and tourism.